At Thrive Chicago we are working to advance racial equity for youth of color in Chicago. As we do this work, we also consider the intersection of gender and race. In doing so, we believe it is important to draw attention to recent trends reflecting the experiences of Chicago’s girls and young women of color. In this blog post, we will examine disconnection rates, which are the percentage of young people ages 16-24 who are not in school and not working.
Between 2019 and 2021 the disconnection rate for all youth in the city of Chicago jumped from 12.3% to 15.4%. Due to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, the disconnection rate increased for almost all racial and gender groups across the city – you can see more detail about these trends by expanding the bar below.
Disaggregated Disconnection Trends 2019-2021
The percentage of young people ages 16-24 that were not working and not in school, the disconnection rate, increased significantly between 2019 and 2021 in the city of Chicago jumping from 12.3% of youth to 15.4%. The number of youth not working and not in school, or Opportunity Youth (OY), increased from about 37,000 to over 45,000, an increase of over 9,000 youth.
While these numbers by themselves are alarming and worth considering, the distribution of the increase in OY is far from equitable.
The year 2019 marked the lowest disconnection rate and lowest number of OY in the city since at least 2011. Over 67,000 youth (18.4% of all youth) in Chicago were Opportunity Youth in 2011 and that number had dropped to 37,000 (12.3%) by 2019.
But due to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, the disconnection rate increased for almost all racial and gender groups across the city. This included 4 and 5 percentage point (pp) increases for Hispanic women and men, respectively, and smaller increases among white men and women.
As with before the pandemic, Black men and women continue to be the most disconnected populations from employment and schooling in the city. Interestingly, the percent of Black men that are Opportunity Youth did not change much and even decreased slightly. But, the disconnection rate for young Black women increased the most out of any racial and gender subpopulation, increasing by over 7pp.
There is, however, a unique trend for Black women. For Black women in Chicago, disconnection is alarmingly high. The rate for young Black women increased the most out of any racial and gender subpopulation – by over seven percentage points in just two years. This trend is even more jarring when put in the context of ten year trends. As illustrated in the graph below, the overall trend is clear: despite some peaks and valleys, between 2011 and 2019 the disconnection rate for Black women was decreasing. The spike in disconnection rates for Black young women in 2021 erased 10 years of gains.
This startling trend begs the question: why did disconnection rates increase so much for Black women, and how sustained do we think these increases will be?
We have some preliminary hypotheses connected to the systemic forces that marginalize women in the workforce generally and further marginalize women of color. More specifically, we consider the types of labor that women, and Black women in particular, perform, both paid labor in the marketplace and unpaid, often invisible labor at home.
One driver of the increase might have been the types of jobs and industries that were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. A preliminary scan of the data provides some suggestive evidence to support this hypothesis. According to the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) administered by the U.S. Census Bureau, the two most common industries that Black women worked in were restaurants (and other food services) at 19.6% and supermarkets (and other grocery stores) at 12.3%. Along those same lines, the most common occupations held by young Black women in 2019 in Chicago were cashiers (23.9%), security guards (5.3%), and retail sales (4.9%). These industries and jobs were particularly impacted by the pandemic due to shutdowns, reduced business hours, and reduced demand for in-person workers, which might explain the disproportionate disconnection from work that Black young women experienced in 2020 and 2021. The silver lining of this data is that it suggests this jump in the disconnection rate for Black women may be more temporary as these job types recover in 2022 and 2023.
Another hypothesized driver of the increased disconnection rate for Black young women has to do with unequal caregiving and housework responsibilities. Black women do comparatively more caregiving and housework compared to Black men, a trend in gender inequity that holds true across all races. According to the 2021 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) administered by the US Census, Black women ages 18-24 spend, on average, 41 minutes per day caring for household members and 63 minutes on household activities, compared to 1 minute and 41 minutes for men. These duties increased compared to 2019, where young Black women spent 18 minutes on caregiving and 41 minutes on household activities. The pandemic not only affected the Black women as individuals, but also their families, resulting in youth being pulled away from the labor market and school to help support the family, which could also be contributing to increased disconnection rates. The potential for this effect to rebound and result in improved rates of connection for Black women is murkier, as these gender inequity trends are more entrenched, and will require shifts in resources and mental models that liberate women from such strong caretaking expectations and obligation.
Systemic racism, gender inequity, and the COVID-19 pandemic have conspired to massively impact Black women and their connection to school and employment. While disconnection rates remain high for youth in Chicago across all racial and gender groups, rates for Black women have increased more compared to other groups. We hypothesize that this was caused in part by a combination of the types of jobs affected, and the increased need for Black women to provide caregiving and household support. It is important to note that these hypotheses are preliminary and the data is simply suggestive. However, the call to action is clear – we must do more for our city’s young women of color, and Black women in particular. Sharing data is a critical function of collective impact organizations such as Thrive – we must make visible the experiences of Chicago’s youth of color so we can identify disparities and address the racial and gender inequity in our systems and institutions. We will revisit this topic in future blog posts – follow and long to learn more, and share your voice so we can co-create systems-level change for and with our young people.
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